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A September 2026 report by Polish writer Tom Wojcik traces how the continuing closure of the Strait of Hormuz is affecting oil markets, fuel availability and fertiliser shipments. It also describes risks to harvests and Poland’s winter heating, though the supplied source ends before giving details on gas storage or the remaining developments it previews.
Wojcik says US and Israeli military operations against Iran began in late February and that Iran has kept the strait closed since March using drones, missiles, mines and small boats. Tanker traffic through the passage, a major route for energy shipments, has fallen by more than 90 percent. The report cites the International Energy Agency as calling the disruption the largest oil supply disruption the market has seen.
Oil prices rose after a fragile ceasefire that had brought prices back to pre-war levels in early summer broke down. Brent crude was near $97 a barrel in early September, around $105 by mid-month and reached $108 on 24 September, the report says. On 22 September, Iran gave Washington a written proposal for a regional ceasefire lasting up to 60 days, a phased reopening of the strait and an end to the US naval blockade. Washington rejected it, according to Wojcik.
The report also links the crisis to fertiliser supplies: it says Hormuz normally carries up to 30 percent of internationally traded fertiliser. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization warns that shortages could reduce yields and tighten food supplies through late 2026 and into 2027. In Europe, Wojcik describes a smaller potato planting after the previous year’s glut, followed by heatwaves and drought; a growers’ organisation expects a harvest down 25 percent. These are reported forecasts and conditions, not a final tally of this year’s harvest.
From Oil Routes to Dinner Tables
The reported disruption links energy prices to food production. Higher oil costs affect transport, while delayed or reduced fertiliser deliveries can lower yields months later. That lag means the full food impact may not be visible until later harvests, when households and aid agencies may face tighter supplies.
For Poland, the report frames the crisis as a household and national energy concern: the country borders Ukraine, is heavily reliant on coal and imported gas, and finances military spending through borrowing, Wojcik writes. The source material provided here does not establish how much the Hormuz closure has changed Polish heating costs or winter readiness, but it explains why global fuel disruption could matter beyond the oil market.
How the Disruption Reached Europe
Wojcik’s report follows the consequences of the closure across several markets rather than treating fuel, food and security as separate stories. It says the attempted detour around the Gulf runs through the Red Sea chokepoint of Bab al-Mandab, where Houthi forces seized a key Yemeni port in September. Details about the port seizure are not included in the supplied extract.
The report also describes pressure on other fuel sources. Ukrainian drones have hit Russian refineries at least 70 times this year, an estimate attributed to the IEA, and Russia’s refining output has fallen to a two-decade low. Separately, official French figures cited by Wojcik showed that 15 percent of fuel stations had run out of petrol or diesel on 20 September, up from 11 percent two days earlier. The French government ruled out a national shortage; most affected stations reportedly belonged to TotalEnergies, whose price cap drew drivers as other prices rose.
Wojcik says the Global Report on Food Crises recorded two confirmed famines in 2025, in Gaza and Sudan, and that funding for food assistance fell an estimated 59 percent from 2022 to 2025. He also cites the World Food Programme’s estimate that sustained high oil prices could push up to 45 million more people into acute food insecurity. These figures describe existing vulnerability and a conditional projection, not a count of people already affected by the current closure.
““The world is not ending. But for thirty years we swapped buffers for dependencies, because a supplier is cheaper than a stockpile and a guarantee is cheaper than an army.””
— Tom Wojcik, author of the report
Winter Supply Risks Still Unquantified
The supplied source extract ends mid-sentence in its discussion of wheat prices and does not include the report’s full treatment of Polish winter heating, European gas storage, or later market developments. It is not possible from this material to quantify the effect on household bills or establish whether Poland or other countries face a physical gas shortage.
The timing and scale of food impacts also remain uncertain. The FAO warning concerns possible yield and supply effects through late 2026 and 2027; the provided material does not give final harvest results. Diplomatic efforts to reopen Hormuz may change the outlook, but the extract records Washington’s rejection of Iran’s proposal and does not report a replacement agreement.
Ceasefire Talks and Coming Harvests
The next milestones are whether diplomatic efforts produce a ceasefire and a reopening of the strait, and whether tanker traffic resumes. Until then, oil prices and shipping costs remain exposed to developments around Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab. The supplied report does not specify a date for further negotiations or a planned reopening.
Food impacts will become clearer as harvest results arrive and fertiliser availability is assessed. For readers tracking the Polish winter outlook, the missing details on gas storage and heating supply are key; the available extract does not provide them.
Key Questions
What is the main development in the report?
Tom Wojcik reports that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, with tanker traffic down by more than 90 percent, and traces related pressure on oil, fuel and fertiliser markets.
What did Iran propose to Washington?
According to the report, Iran submitted a written proposal on 22 September 2026 for a regional ceasefire of up to 60 days, a phased reopening of Hormuz and an end to the US naval blockade. Washington rejected it.
Does the report say Europe is running out of fuel?
No. It reports that 15 percent of French fuel stations lacked petrol or diesel on 20 September, while the French government ruled out a national shortage. Wojcik says many affected stations were drawing unusually high demand after a TotalEnergies price cap.
How could the closure affect food supplies?
The report says Hormuz normally carries up to 30 percent of internationally traded fertiliser. The FAO warns that shortages could reduce yields and tighten supplies through late 2026 and into 2027; the eventual effect is not yet confirmed.
What is known about Poland’s winter heating?
The report identifies Poland’s reliance on coal and imported gas as a concern, but the supplied extract does not give gas storage figures, projected heating costs or a specific assessment of winter supply adequacy.
Source: hn
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